2024 Missouri gubernatorial election

Last updated

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
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←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent Governor

Mike Parson
Republican



The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Parson is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024. [1]

Contents

The former bellwether state has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri is Jay Nixon who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41% in the first election in which Missouri elected a Republican for governor by double digits since 1988. [2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft Jay Ashcroft - SBD - Federalist Society - Missouri-14 (49451379162) (cropped).jpg
Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft
Lieutenant Governor of Missouri Mike Kehoe Mike Kehoe official photo.jpg
Lieutenant Governor of Missouri Mike Kehoe

Declared

Endorsements

Jay Ashcroft
Organizations
Mike Kehoe
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jay
Ashcroft		Bill
Eigel		Mike
Kehoe		OtherUndecided
Peak Insights May 15–18, 2024400 (LV)± 5.0%22%14%20%–42%
Tyson Group [upper-alpha 1] April 23–26, 2024504 (LV)± 4.3%36%3%11%9% [lower-alpha 2] 40%
YouGov/Saint Louis University February 14–26, 2024414 (LV)± 5.54%28%8%10%4% [lower-alpha 3] 49%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout February 14–15, 2024706 (LV)± 3.6%35%5%22%–38%
ARW Strategies (R) February 5–7, 2024611 (V)± 3.96%36%13%13%–38%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout January 18–19, 2024806 (LV)± 3.3%34%4%20%–42%
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (LV)± 4.9%18%6%19%–49%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout September 27–28, 2023714 (LV)± 3.4%32%5%15%–48%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout July 5–7, 2023706 (LV)± 3.4%34%4%14%–38%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout November 15–16, 2022940 (LV)± 3.0%44%4%10%–42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 8–10, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%54%–19%8%19%

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jay Ashcroft
Republican Bill Eigel
Republican Darren Grant
Republican Jeremy Gundel
Republican Mike Kehoe
Republican Darrell McClanahan
Republican Robert Olson
Republican Amber Thomsen
Republican Chris Wright
Total votes

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Endorsements

Crystal Quade
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 40 state legislators [24]
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Sheryl
Gladney		Mike
Hamra		Crystal
Quade		Sarah
Unsicker		Undecided
YouGov/Saint Louis University February 14–26, 2024396 (LV)± 5.57%4%5%21%4%66%
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%–2%39%–58%

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sheryl Gladney
Democratic Mike Hamra
Democratic Hollis Laster
Democratic Eric Morrison
Democratic Crystal Quade
Total votes

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [28] Solid RJuly 21, 2023
Inside Elections [29] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [30] Safe RJuly 13, 2023
Elections Daily [31] Safe RJuly 12, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Mike Kehoe vs. Crystal Quade
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Kehoe (R)		Crystal
Quade (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%38%33%–29%
Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jay
Ashcroft (R)		Crystal
Quade (D)		OtherUndecided
Remington Research Group [upper-alpha 3] March 6-8, 2024713 (LV)± 3.9%53%36%–11%
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%39%34%–27%
Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Eigel (R)		Crystal
Quade (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%33%34%–33%
Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Kehoe (R)		Mike
Hamra (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%37%27%–36%
Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jay
Ashcroft (R)		Mike
Hamra (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%39%29%–32%
Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Eigel (R)		Mike
Hamra (D)		OtherUndecided
Show Me Victories (D) October 26–31, 2023407 (RV)± 4.9%33%30%–37%

Results

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican TBD
Democratic TBD
Libertarian Bill Slantz
Total votes

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant & Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel & Chris Wright with 1%
  3. ↑ Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  4. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Committee for Liberty PAC, which supports Ashcroft
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Missouri Scout

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References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  3. ↑ Shorman, Jonathan (April 6, 2023). "Missouri's top election official Jay Ashcroft launches Republican campaign for governor". The Kansas City Star.
  4. ↑ Singer, Jeff (August 17, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/17". Daily Kos . Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  6. ↑ Hancock, Jason (March 22, 2021). "Mike Kehoe passes on 2022 Senate run to focus on 2024 Missouri governor's race". Missouri Independent. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  7. ↑ Krull, Ryan (February 29, 2024). "Missouri GOP Candidate for Governor Was Only 'Honorary' KKK Member". Riverfront Times . Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life". www.stltoday.com. July 18, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  9. ↑ Hays, Brady (April 5, 2022). "Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  10. ↑ "Kehoe backed by Missouri Fraternal Order of Police in gubernatorial bid". The Missouri Times. February 28, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  11. ↑ Turner, Kelton (May 19, 2022). "Kehoe backed by American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri" . Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  12. 1 2 3 "Kehoe Gains 12th Endorsement in Bid for Missouri Governor in '24". Northwest MO Info . November 28, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  13. 1 2 3 Brady, Hays (March 22, 2022). "Missouri Agribusiness Association endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  14. ↑ Hays, Brady (June 14, 2022). "Missouri Asphalt Pavement Association endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  15. ↑ "Mike Kehoe gains gubernatorial endorsement from Missouri Chamber of Commerce". Springfield News-Leader. Archived from the original on September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  16. ↑ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor in 2024".
  17. ↑ McFarland, Matthew (August 26, 2022). "Missouri Forest Products Association endorses Kehoe for 2024 Governor race". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  18. ↑ Hays, Brady (May 23, 2022). "Missouri Limestone Producers Association endorses Mike Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  19. ↑ "SITE Improvement Association Endorses Mike Kehoe for Missouri Governor In 2024". St. Louis Construction News & Review. March 1, 2023. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  20. ↑ Keller, Rudi (October 27, 2023). "Springfield businessman Mike Hamra joins Democratic race for Missouri governor". Missouri Independent . Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  21. ↑ Sellem, Lucas (July 9, 2023). "Rep. Crystal Quade announces run for MO governor". KMOV . Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  22. ↑ Ballentine, Summer (February 27, 2024). "Exiled Missouri lawmaker blocked from running for governor as a Democrat". The Associated Press . Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  23. 1 2 3 "Crystal Quade gains endorsement from Planned Parenthood in 2024 gubernatorial bid". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  24. ↑ Sundrup, Jack (October 11, 2023). "Missouri Democrat Crystal Quade could face intraparty competition in bid for governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  25. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  26. ↑ "2024 Missouri Sierra Club Election Endorsements | Sierra Club". www.sierraclub.org. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  27. ↑ Alpert, Lynn (September 25, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Crystal Quade for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  28. ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  29. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  30. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  31. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
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