2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. ^[1]

A purple to slightly blue Northeastern state partly within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democrat in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from Barack Obama's 10.31% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump (whose home state was neighboring New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Joe Biden — a native Pennsylvanian representing neighboring Delaware — by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup. ^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president and Pennsylvanian-born Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024.

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 23, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	926,633	88.2%	156
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	68,310	6.5%
Write-in votes	55,611	5.3%
Total:	1,050,554	100.0%	159	27	186
Source: [4]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary

The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024.

Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 23, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	790,690	82.8%	16	46	62
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	157,228	16.5%
Write-in votes	10,387	1.2%
Unprojected delegates:				5	5
Total:	958,305	100.0%	16	51	67
Source: [5]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [6]	Tossup	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [7]	Tossup	April 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [8]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [9]	Tossup	December 30, 2023
CNN [10]	Tossup	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	May 30–31, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.1%	43%	45%	12%
		923 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	47%	8%
Prime Group [upper-alpha 1]	May 9–16, 2024	487 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	730 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	48%	7%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer	April 28 – May 9, 2024	1,023 (RV)	± 3.6%	44%	47%	9%
		1,023 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	48%	7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 2]	April 24–30, 2024	1,398 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	49%	6%
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	51%	–
CBS News/YouGov	April 19–25, 2024	1,288 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	50%	1%
Muhlenberg College	April 15–25, 2024	417 (RV)	± 6.0%	41%	44%	15%
Fox News	April 11–16, 2024	1,141 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	7%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 3]	March 29 – April 3, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18% [lower-alpha 2]
Franklin & Marshall College	March 20–31, 2024	870 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	14%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	9%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 4]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.5%	45%	49%	6%
CNN/SSRS	March 13–18, 2024	1,132 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	46%	8%
Emerson College	March 10–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	10%
Fox News	March 7–11, 2024	1,149 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	February 27 – March 7, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	50%	45%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	45%	12%
Chism Strategies	February 6–8, 2024	500 (RV)	± 5.0%	32%	40%	28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	January 22–25, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	48%	10%
Franklin & Marshall College	January 17–28, 2024	507 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	42%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	48%	7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	January 15–21, 2024	745 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	39%	14%
Quinnipiac University	January 4–8, 2024	1,680 (RV)	± 2.4%	49%	46%	5% [lower-alpha 3]
The Bullfinch Group	December 14–18, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	45%	10%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	December 3–7, 2023	(RVs)	–	40%	46%	14%
Muhlenberg College	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	42%	41%	17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	799 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	46%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	805 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
		816 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	44%	48%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College	October 11–22, 2023	873 (RV)	± 4.1%	44%	42%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	46%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	900 (LV)	–	43%	42%	15%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	430 (RV)	± 4.7%	36%	45%	19%
Quinnipiac University	September 28 – October 2, 2023	1,725 (RV)	± 2.4%	45%	47%	8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5]	September 25–26, 2023	673 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	45%	7%
Prime Group [upper-alpha 6]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	50%	50%	–
		500 (RV)	–	38%	43%	19% [lower-alpha 4]
Quinnipiac University	June 22–26, 2023	1,584 (RV)	± 2.5%	46%	47%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	42%	12%
Franklin & Marshall College	March 27 – April 7, 2023	643 (RV)	± 4.9%	36%	35%	29%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	February 19–26, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.2%	48%	41%	11%
Targoz Market Research	November 2–6, 2022	631 (LV)	± 3.8%	46%	52%	2%
Emerson College	October 28–31, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	44%	12%
Emerson College	September 23–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	46%	9%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	828 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	43%	9%
Emerson College	August 22–23, 2022	1,034 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	47%	11%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 7]	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	42%	44%	14%
Blueprint Polling (D)	July 19–21, 2022	712 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	41%	17%
Blueprint Polling (D)	February 15–16, 2022	635 (LV)	± 3.9%	45%	40%	15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 8]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	51%	4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Prime Group [upper-alpha 1]	May 9–16, 2024	487 (RV)	–	45%	42%	9%	2%	2%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	7%	2%	1%	3%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)	May 6–13, 2024	730 (LV)	± 3.6%	40%	43%	7%	2%	2%	6%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer	April 28 – May 9, 2024	1,023 (RV)	± 3.6%	36%	40%	10%	0%	1%	13% [lower-alpha 5]
		1,023 (LV)	± 3.6%	37%	41%	9%	0%	1%	12% [lower-alpha 5]
Emerson College	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	45%	6%	1%	1%	7%
Fox News	April 11–16, 2024	1,141 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	44%	8%	1%	2%	3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	April 8–15, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	43%	8%	0%	1%	6%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	41%	7%	3%	1%	10%
Emerson College	March 10–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	5%	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–12, 2024	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	44%	7%	0%	1%	10%
Fox News	March 7–11, 2024	1,149 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	42%	9%	2%	2%	3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	45%	8%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	42%	8%	2%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	7%	1%	1%	8%
Quinnipiac University	January 4–8, 2023	1,680 (RV)	± 2.4%	41%	39%	11%	2%	4%	3% [lower-alpha 6]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	799 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	39%	9%	1%	1%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 2–4, 2024	635 (LV)	–	41%	43%	7%	0%	9%
Franklin & Marshall College	March 20–31, 2024	870 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	40%	9%	3%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	March 14–17, 2024	775 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	1%	7%
Franklin & Marshall College	January 17–28, 2024	494 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	37%	8%	2%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	May 30–31, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	39%	8%	12%
		923 (LV)	± 3.1%	43%	42%	7%	8%
Muhlenberg College	April 15–25, 2024	417 (RV)	± 6.0%	35%	35%	18%	12%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 9]	March 22–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	41%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	1,069 (LV)	–	39%	40%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	37%	44%	7%	10%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.6	35%	35%	23%	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	900 (LV)	–	39%	39%	9%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
CNN/SSRS	March 13–18, 2024	1,132 (RV)	± 3.8%	38%	40%	16%	4%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	805 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	41%	8%	1%	12%

Hypothetical polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	49%	11%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	44%	47%	9%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	33%	48%	19%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	48%	37%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	33%	38%	29%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	39%	49%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	36%	26%	18%	7%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	41%	39%	20%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	43%	47%	10%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)	May 2–8, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	39%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	45%	13%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	828 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	42%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	37%	34%	13%	3%	12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)	May 2–8, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	38%	20%

Debate

Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates

The sole vice presidential debate is scheduled to be held at Lafayette College in Easton on September 25, 2024, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Whether either major party nominee will attend the debates has been called into question due to conflicts with the commission regarding the 2020 debates. ^[11]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
3. "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
4. No Labels candidate
5. Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
6. "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
2. Poll commissioned by AARP
3. Poll sponsored by Independent Center
4. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
5. Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
6. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
7. Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
8. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
9. Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "Pennsylvania Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
5. "Pennsylvania Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
6. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
11. Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.