2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

Last updated May 26, 2024

The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Massachusetts voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Background

Since 2021, speculation had already begun brewing if President Joe Biden would seek a second term. Biden responded to this by announcing his intention to run in 2024.^[3] However, during a CBS 60 Minutes interview, Biden said that he was "not committed" to run.^[4] Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today.^{[lower-alpha 1]} Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the largest percent of the popular vote in the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	533,096	80.5%	91		91
No Preference	60,236	9.1%	1		1
Dean Phillips	29,728	4.5%
Marianne Williamson	20,402	3.1%
Other candidates	10,135	1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in)	82	<0.1%
Blank ballots	8,930	1.3%
Total:	662,609	100%	92		92
Source: ^[5]

Republican primary

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	343,189	59.56%	40	0	40
Nikki Haley	211,440	36.69%	0	0	0
No Preference	5,717	0.99%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,217	0.91%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,981	0.69%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,738	0.30%	0	0	0
Other candidates	1,674	0.29%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	619	0.11%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	527	0.09%	0	0	0
Blank ballots	2,148	0.37%	0	0	0
Total:	576,250	100.00%	40	0	40
Source: ^[6]

Libertarian primary

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
No Preference	3,982	36.45%
Chase Oliver	1,453	13.30%
Jacob Hornberger	1,089	9.97%
Michael Rectenwald	546	5.00%
Lars Mapstead	399	3.65%
Mike ter Maat	314	2.87%
All Others	2,161	19.78%
Blank ballots	980	8.97%
Total:	10,924	100.00%
Source:^[7]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report ^[8]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections ^[9]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball ^[10]	Solid D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill ^[11]	Solid D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis ^[12]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN ^[13]	Solid D	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	68%	32%	–
University of Massachusetts Lowell	October 18–25, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	32%	10%
Emerson College	September 7–8, 2022	708 (LV)	± 3.6%	54%	34%	12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell	June 7–15, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	31%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	55%	26%	10%	1%	2%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 2]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	April 16–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	22%	8%	18%
Suffolk University	February 2–5, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	26%	9%	21%
YouGov ^{[upper-alpha 2]}	October 13–20, 2023	700 (V)	± 5.1%	43%	21%	17%	19%

Notes

↑ Ronald Reagan won the state twice in 1980 and 1984, albeit very narrowly each time; his victories in Massachusetts were his smallest in the country.
1 2 3 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

↑ Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
↑ Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

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References

↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
↑ Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
↑ "President Biden says he hasn't decided on 2024 reelection run". CBS News. September 18, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
↑ "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
↑ "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
↑ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts . Retrieved March 12, 2024.
↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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[5] Ronald Reagan won the state twice in 1980 and 1984, albeit very narrowly each time; his victories in Massachusetts were his smallest in the country.

[key-15] 1 2 3 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[16] Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe

[17] Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[3] Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.

[4] "President Biden says he hasn't decided on 2024 reelection run". CBS News. September 18, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.

[6] "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.

[7] "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.

[8] "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts . Retrieved March 12, 2024.

[9] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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