2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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  Bob Casey Jr. official photo (cropped).jpg David McCormick Under Secretary.jpg
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. David McCormick
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024. [1] Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023. [2]

Contents

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat was in 2016. [3] [4] [5] [6]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points. [7] [8] [9]

The race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Casey to be the favorite to win. [10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • William Parker, app developer [12] [13]

Endorsements

Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D)$23,790,263$12,391,802$11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission [42]

Results

Democratic primary results [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Disqualified

  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate [46]

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present) [64]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dave McCormick (R)$11,052,879$4,660,701$6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission [42]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kathy
Barnette		Doug
Mastriano		David
McCormick		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023616 (LV)–11%39%21%29%
––42%28%29%

Results

Republican primary results [73]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David McCormick 878,319 100.00%
Total votes878,319 100.00%

Libertarian convention

The Pennsylvania Libertarian Party officially nominated John Thomas at the party's state convention on March 2, 2024. [74]

Candidates

Nominee

  • John Thomas, educator [74]

Eliminated at convention

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020 [75]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [76] Lean DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [77] Tilt DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] Likely DNovember 9, 2023
Elections Daily [79] Likely DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [80] Lean DNovember 21, 2023

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		David
McCormick (R)		OtherUndecided
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer April 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%46%41%–13%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%46%44%–10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] April 24–30, 20241,398 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Emerson College/The Hill April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%–12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 20241,306 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%–15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%45%41%5%9%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 2] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%45%38%9%8%
National Public Affairs March 2024759 (LV)± 3.6%32%28%–40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024431 (RV)± 5.7%46%39%–15%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 3] March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%30%8%15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––
Susquehanna Polling & Research February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%42%–10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%–13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%38%37%–25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 4] January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%–12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 20231,006 (RV)± 3.6%47%35%4%14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) January 15–21, 2024745 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%3%9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%53%43%1% [lower-alpha 2] 2%
Common Ground (R) [upper-alpha 5] December 8–12, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%42%27%13% [lower-alpha 3] 20%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 6] December 3–7, 20232,532 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%0%15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%46%39%4%12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%41%33%8%18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%50%44%2% [lower-alpha 4] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%1%5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%0%13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 6.6%42%35%–23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Doug
Mastriano (R)		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 3.7%47%31%22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)
Republican David McCormick
Libertarian John Thomas
Total votes

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  3. ↑ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll commissioned by AARP
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
  4. ↑ Poll commissioned for David McCormick
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

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References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN . April 10, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ↑ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ↑ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  7. ↑ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  8. ↑ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. November 7, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  10. ↑ Hudson, Lee (April 10, 2023). "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  11. ↑ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN . Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  12. ↑ The Associated Press (February 22, 2024). "Two more candidates file papers to run for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". WTAE-TV . Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  13. ↑ Cole, John (March 6, 2024). "Pennsylvania GOP U.S. Senate candidate McCormick endorses Trump for president". Pennsylvania-Capital Star . Retrieved March 7, 2024. Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Lyons, Kim (July 26, 2023). "Casey campaign gets a boost from Pennsylvania veterans' coalition". Pennsylvania Capital-Star . Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  16. ↑ "Mark Kelly isn't on the 2024 ballot. He's traveling the country for Dems anyway". Politico . January 30, 2024.
  17. 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  18. ↑ Prose, J. D. (December 16, 2023). "Pa. Democrats make 2024 endorsements, but attorney general's race remains open". The Patriot-News . Retrieved December 16, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  20. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
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  22. 1 2 "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  23. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
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  25. ↑ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  26. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  27. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
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  29. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
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  31. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  32. ↑ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  33. ↑ "PSEA recommends U.S. Sen. Bob Casey for reelection". Pennsylvania State Education Association. January 18, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  34. ↑ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left .
  35. ↑ Kauffman, William (March 14, 2024). "PRESS RELEASE: AFSCME Council 13 members unanimously endorse Senator Bob Casey". Council 13 AFSCME. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  36. ↑ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
  37. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  38. ↑ Lyons, Kim. "Casey picks up PA AFL-CIO endorsement". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  39. ↑ "United Mine Workers endorses Casey for re-election in Pennsylvania". UMWA. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  40. ↑ "USW Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  41. ↑ Staff, P. G. N. (April 10, 2024). "PGN Editorial Endorsements: Primary 2024". Philadelphia Gay News. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  42. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  43. ↑ "Pennsylvania Elections". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved May 4, 2024.
  44. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state". Fox News . Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  45. ↑ Cole, John (March 8, 2024). "Three candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat remain on ballot following petition challenges". Pennsylvania Capital-Star . Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  46. ↑ Cole, John (March 11, 2024). "Casey vs McCormick general election matchup appears set after petition challenges". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  47. ↑ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO . Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  48. ↑ "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
  49. ↑ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will (September 15, 2023). "Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate". ABC News . Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  50. ↑ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill .
  51. 1 2 Smith, Allan; Bowman, Bridget (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick jumps into the critical Pennsylvania Senate race". NBC News . Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  52. 1 2 "Dave McCormick April 2024 Event in Texas with George W. Bush". Documented. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  53. ↑ LeVine, Marianne (April 13, 2024). "Trump endorses a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate he once condemned". The Washington Post . Retrieved April 13, 2024.
  54. ↑ "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate in Pennsylvania". John Bolton PAC. April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  55. ↑ Siwy, Bruce (September 21, 2023). "Who is David McCormick? Here are 5 things to know about Bob Casey's possible GOP opponent". Erie Times-News . Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  56. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Salant, Jonathan D.; Kail, Benjamin (September 28, 2023). "A top conservative group picked a candidate in the GOP primary to take on Chris Deluzio". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  57. ↑ Terruso, Julia (April 3, 2024). "Steak in the race: Dave McCormick visits Geno's with former Sen. Pat Toomey". The Philadelphia Inquirer . Retrieved April 17, 2024.
  58. ↑ Kalinowski, Bob (April 4, 2024). "McCormick, allies blast Casey during Back Mountain campaign stop". The Citizens' Voice . Retrieved April 17, 2024.
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  60. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (September 21, 2023). "This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate". Politico . Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  61. ↑ Tamari, Jonathan (May 24, 2023). "McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  62. ↑ Eberwein, Richard (March 7, 2024). "David McCormick's campaign won't say if he would support Duckworth's bill to protect IVF". Heartland Signal. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  63. ↑ White, Jaxon (September 21, 2023). "State Sen. Ryan Aument would endorse Dave McCormick's U.S. Senate run". LNP Lancaster Online . Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  64. ↑ Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). "Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP". Associated Press . Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  65. ↑ Seidel, Emily (July 19, 2023). "Americans for Prosperity Action Announces First Wave of Endorsements in 2024 U.S. Senate Races". AFP Action. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  66. 1 2 "CPAC Endorses David McCormick for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". CPAC.
  67. ↑ "2024 ENDORSED CANDIDATES". Log Cabin Republicans. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  68. ↑ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation) (October 1, 2023). "PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate". Twitter . Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  69. ↑ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP) (October 1, 2023). "Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  70. ↑ "RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  71. ↑ Mastrull, Diane (September 30, 2023). "David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run". The Philadelphia Inquirer . Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  72. 1 2 3 Lai, Stephanie (December 14, 2023). "Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab to Host Fundraiser for David McCormick's Senate Bid". Bloomberg . Retrieved April 17, 2024.
  73. ↑ "Pennsylvania Elections". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved May 4, 2024.
  74. 1 2 Deemer, Jacob (April 11, 2024). "Armstrong County Man Launches U.S. Senate Campaign". exploreClarion. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  75. ↑ "Nominations for Statewide Offices". Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. March 2, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  76. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  77. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  78. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  79. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  80. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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