2024 United States presidential election in California

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in California

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Party Democratic Republican American Independent Home state Delaware Florida California Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA Nicole Shanahan

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. ^[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country. ^[2]

The most populous state in the Union as well as one of the most progressive, California has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so by double digits in each of them excluding 2004, when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. California is predicted to go safely for incumbent Democrat Joe Biden in 2024, with vice president and California native Kamala Harris as his running mate. ^[3]

In April 2024, the American Independent Party of California nominated independent candidate, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. of California as its presidential nominee, despite not seeking the party's nomination. ^[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 California Democratic presidential primary

The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.

Popular vote share by county

  Biden

•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   >90%

California Democratic primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	3,207,687	89.1%	424		424
Marianne Williamson	146,356	4.1%
Dean Phillips	100,284	2.8%
Armando Perez-Serrato	43,105	1.2%
Gabriel Cornejo	41,390	1.2%
"President" R. Boddie	25,455	0.7%
Stephen P. Lyons	21,062	0.6%
Eban Cambridge	12,758	0.3%
Total (including write-ins):	3,598,126	100.00%	424	73	497
Source: [5] [6]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 California Republican presidential primary

The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.

The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

California Republican primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	1,962,905	79.25%	169	0	169
Nikki Haley	431,876	17.44%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	35,717	1.44%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	20,210	0.82%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	11,113	0.45%	0	0	0
Rachel Swift	4,253	0.17%	0	0	0
David Stuckenberg	3,909	0.16%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	3,577	0.14%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	3,336	0.13%	0	0	0
Total:	2,476,896	100.00%	169	0	169
Source: [7] [8] [9]

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot. ^[10] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate. ^[11]

2024 California Libertarian primary ^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			Charles Ballay	21,906	98.6%
Chase Oliver (write-in)	313	1.4%
Total:	22,219	100.0%

Green primary

Main article: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries

Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates. ^{[10] [11]} Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.

2024 California Green primary ^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
Jill Stein	15,801	99.96%	59
Matthew Pruden (write-in)	3	0.02%
Jorge Zavala (write-in)	3	0.02%
Davi (write-in)	1	0.00%
Total:	15,808	100.0%	59

Peace and Freedom primary

Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman. ^[13] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August. ^[14]

2024 California Peace and Freedom primary ^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			Claudia de la Cruz	6,430	47.0%
Cornel West	5,455	39.9%
Jasmine Sherman	1,795	13.1%
Total:	13,680	100.0%

American Independent Party

The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for U.S. Senator as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day. ^{[10] [15]} Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate. ^[11]

2024 California American Independent primary ^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			James Bradley	45,565	99.96%
Andrew George Rummel (write-in)	16	0.04%
Total:	45,581	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [16]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [17]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [18]	Solid D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [19]	Solid D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [20]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [21]	Solid D	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Institute of California	March 19–25, 2024	1,089 (LV)	± 3.9%	54%	31%	14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	February 24–27, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	57%	35%	8%
UC Berkeley IGS	February 22–26, 2024	6,536 (LV)	± 1.5%	52%	34%	14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	February 16–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	55%	33%	12%
Public Policy Institute of California	February 6–14, 2024	1,075 (LV)	± 3.9%	55%	32%	13%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	January 11–14, 2024	1,087 (RV)	± 2.9%	54%	34%	12%
UC Berkeley IGS	January 1–4, 2024	4,471 (LV)	± 2.0%	56%	37%	19%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	37%	13%
Public Policy Institute of California	November 9–16, 2023	1,113 (LV)	± 3.2%	54%	30%	16%
UC Berkeley IGS	October 24–30, 2023	4,506 (LV)	± 2.5%	46%	31%	23%
Public Policy Institute of California	October 3–19, 2023	1,377 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	29%	12%
Data Viewpoint	October 1, 2023	533 (RV)	± 4.3%	67%	33%	–
Public Policy Institute of California	August 25 – September 5, 2023	1,146 (LV)	± 3.7%	57%	26%	17%
UC Berkeley IGS	August 24–29, 2023	6,030 (RV)	± 2.0%	51%	31%	18%
Public Policy Institute of California	June 7–29, 2023	1,089 (LV)	± 3.8%	57%	31%	12%
Public Policy Institute of California	May 17–24, 2023	1,062 (LV)	± 3.9%	58%	25%	17%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times	February 14–20, 2023	5,149 (LV)	± 2.0%	59%	29%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	February 24–27, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	32%	6%	2%	1%	8%
UC Berkeley IGS	February 22–26, 2024	6,536 (LV)	± 1.5%	40%	28%	11%	3%	2%	16%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	February 16–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	31%	8%	1%	1%	10%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	January 11–14, 2024	1,087 (RV)	± 2.9%	47%	32%	6%	1%	1%	13%
UC Berkeley IGS	January 1–4, 2024	4,471 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	31%	7%	2%	2%	11%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	31%	8%	1%	2%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS	October 24–30, 2023	4,506 (LV)	± 2.5%	43%	29%	9%	4%	15%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Data Viewpoint	October 1, 2023	533 (RV)	± 4.3%	58%	42%	–

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times	February 14–20, 2023	5,149 (LV)	± 2.0%	56%	34%	10%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	38%	15%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections [upper-alpha 1]	November 11–14, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	53%	35%	13%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Probolsky Research	August 4–9, 2022	900 (LV)	± 3.3%	55%	38%	7%

See also

• United States presidential elections in California
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

1. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
4. "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will appear on California ballot with this small, far-right party". Sacramento Bee. April 29, 2024.
5. "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California . December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
6. "California Presidential Primary". Associated Press . March 5, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
7. "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California . December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
8. "California Presidential Primary - Republican". California Secretary of State . March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
9. "California Presidential Primary". The AP. May 9, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
10. "Certified List of Candidates" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
11. "Certified List of Presidential Write-In Candidates" (PDF). Office of the Secretary of State of California. February 23, 2024. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
12. "STATEMENT OF VOTE MARCH 5, 2024, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS" (PDF). California Secretary of State. April 12, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
13. "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California . December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
14. Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names" . Retrieved December 3, 2023.
15. Frisk, Garrett (September 22, 2023). "California Senate Candidate Roundup: September 22, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
16. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
17. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
18. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
19. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
20. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
21. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.