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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. [1]
A heavily-populated Midwestern state located mainly in the Rust Belt, and the southern portion of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years. The GOP's success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the possible death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions. Today a moderately red state, Ohio is expected to be less heavily contested in 2024 than in the past several presidential election cycles, with major news organizations predicting the state to lean towards the GOP candidate (presumably Trump). [2] The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. [3]
Biden is not yet on the ballot, as the Democratic National Convention will take place after the imposed state deadline. Democrats plan to nominate him virtually in order to meet the deadline and ensure his inclusion on the ballot.
The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 461,558 | 87.06% | 124 | ||
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,629 | 12.94% | 3 | ||
Total: | 530,187 | 100.00% | 127 | 16 | 133 |
Source: [4] |
The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 896,059 | 79.21% | 79 | 79 | |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 162,563 | 14.37% | |||
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 38,089 | 3.37% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,027 | 1.77% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 14,450 | 1.28% | |||
Total: | 1,131,188 | 100.00% | 79 | 79 | |
Source: [5] |
Due to the Democratic National Convention taking place on August 19, 2024, which occurs more than a week after the August 7 deadline to certify a presidential candidate to the office, the eventual Democratic nominee (presumably Biden) is disqualified from the ballot under present Ohio law. [6] [7] Efforts to create an emergency fix have stalled in the Ohio Legislature. The state House adjourned without considering a fix on May 8. [8] On May 21, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose provided an update confirming that efforts to rectify the situation were at an impasse, as the state legislature would not take up the issue and the Democratic Party had offered no "legally acceptable remedy" up to that point. He further clarified that if the party does not work toward a solution themselves, their presidential nominee will not be listed on the November ballot. [9]
On May 23, Governor Mike DeWine called for a special legislative session and tasked lawmakers with ensuring Biden's inclusion on the ballot. Republican leaders in the state Senate, with DeWine's support, hope to pass a bill that will tie solving the ballot access issue to a ban on foreign contributions toward ballot measure efforts in the state. Ohio Democratic Party chair Elizabeth Walters and state House minority leader Allison Russo have signaled their opposition to the ban, which has been described as a poison pill amendment; a spokesperson for DeWine later said that a bill dealing only with the ballot access issue could also be considered. [10]
After the state legislature again found itself unable to address the issue, the Democratic Party announced that a virtual roll call nomination, similar to the process used by the party in 2020, will take place two weeks before the 2024 Democratic National Convention in order to nominate Biden and meet Ohio's deadline. [11]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [12] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [13] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [15] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis [16] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [17] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 55% | 45% | – |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15% [lower-alpha 3] |
Emerson College | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Ohio Northern University/Lucid | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Emerson College | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12% [lower-alpha 4] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Joe Manchin Independent | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 42% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Gavin Newsom Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Gretchen Whitmer Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 34% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Nikki Haley Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30% [lower-alpha 5] |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21% [lower-alpha 6] |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Ron Desantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Chris Christie Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Mike Pence Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24% [lower-alpha 7] |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Tim Scott Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
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