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Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024. [1]
Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he would not seek a third full term in office. [2] Manchin has been West Virginia's only congressional Democrat since 2015 and the only Democrat holding any partisan statewide office in West Virginia since 2021.
West Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each election from 1932 to 1996 besides 1956, 1972 and 1984. The last time West Virginia voted Republican in a presidential race by a single digit-margin was when George W. Bush won the state in 2000 by 6.3 percentage points; the state has gone to the Republican nominee by double digits in each election since, with Donald Trump winning the state with more than 68% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020. Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, [3] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. [4] Notable Republicans who ran for this seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney [5] and Governor Jim Justice. [6]
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win over the seat even if Manchin sought reelection. [7] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. [8] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship could have spurred Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a, "long, long, long-shot scenario"; in any case, the proposal became moot due to Blankenship's loss. [9]
The last time Republicans won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956. If Republicans win this seat as expected, it will be the first time since 1958 that both of West Virginia's U.S. Senate seats are in Republican hands, and if they also win both U.S. House seats, it will mark the first time since 1909 that West Virginia’s congressional delegation is entirely Republican.
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Zachary Shrewsbury (D) | $190,545 | $139,586 | $50,959 |
Glenn Elliot (D) | $110,207 | $29,058 | $81,149 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [22] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Glenn Elliott | 45,955 | 45.4% | |
Democratic | Zach Shrewsbury | 36,535 | 36.1% | |
Democratic | Don Blankenship | 18,628 | 18.4% | |
Total votes | 101,118 | 100.0% |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Jim Justice (R) | $2,577,752 | $1,516,541 | $1,061,211 |
Alex Mooney (R) | $3,182,358 | $1,887,585 | $1,294,772 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [22] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | May 2–5, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 30% | 10% [lower-alpha 2] | – |
Research America [upper-alpha 1] | April 24 – May 1, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 23% | 7% | 3% |
Osage Research [upper-alpha 2] | April 22–24, 2024 | 400(LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 35% | 5% | 11% |
NMB Research | April 20–22, 2024 | 500(LV) | ± 4.38% | 60% | 24% | – | 16% |
Research America [upper-alpha 1] | April 3–9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 24% | 4% | 6% |
Emerson College | March 19–21, 2024 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 17% | 1% | 22% |
American Pulse Research & Polling (R) [upper-alpha 3] | November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 20% | 3% [lower-alpha 3] | 22% |
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates [upper-alpha 4] | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 23% | – | 15% |
Research America [upper-alpha 1] | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | – | 16% |
Orion Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 9% | 16% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | – | 35% |
co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | – | 38% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV) [lower-alpha 4] | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jim Justice | 137,605 | 61.8% | |
Republican | Alex Mooney | 59,083 | 26.6% | |
Republican | Bryan Bird | 6,953 | 3.1% | |
Republican | Bryan McKinney | 6,530 | 2.9% | |
Republican | Zane Lawhorn | 4,481 | 2.0% | |
Republican | Janet McNulty | 4,361 | 2.0% | |
Republican | Don Lindsay | 3,482 | 1.6% | |
Total votes | 222,495 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [51] | Solid R (flip) | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [52] | Solid R (flip) | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] | Safe R (flip) | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [8] | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [54] | Solid R (flip) | November 21, 2023 |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Glenn Elliot (D) | $110,207 | $29,058 | $81,149 |
Jim Justice (R) | $2,577,752 | $1,516,541 | $1,061,211 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [22] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | – | 31% |
Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 1% | 13% |
co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | – | 28% |
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | – | 21% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | – | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | Oct 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | – |
Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | – |
ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% |
co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (I) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Glenn Elliott | ||||
Republican | Jim Justice | ||||
Total votes |
Shelley Wellons Moore Capito is an American politician and retired educator serving in her second term as the junior United States senator from West Virginia, a post she has held since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Capito served seven terms as the U.S. representative from West Virginia's 2nd congressional district from 2001 to 2015. The daughter of three-term West Virginia governor Arch Alfred Moore Jr., she is the dean of West Virginia's congressional delegation.
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The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the State of West Virginia, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections are scheduled for May 14, 2024.
West Virginia's other House Republican, Rep. Carol Miller, said she has no plans to run for the Senate.