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Elections in Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024. [1]
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections. [2] [3] [4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points. [5] [6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates. [7]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Tim Kaine (D) | $13,030,712 | $6,794,892 | $8,755,481 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [23] |
Hung Cao, one of the republican challengers has been embroiled in controversy with racist and controversial remarks. [24] [25]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Hung Cao (R) | $2,036,423 | $1,557,642 | $571,261 |
Jonathan Emord (R) | $808,722 [lower-alpha 1] | $776,557 | $32,165 |
Eddie Garcia (R) | $298,802 | $281,916 | $16,885 |
Scott Parkinson (R) | $841,133 | $469,182 | $371,950 |
Chuck Smith (R) | $509,949 | $485,433 | $24,516 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [23] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Hung Cao | |||
Republican | Jonathan Emord | |||
Republican | Eddie Garcia | |||
Republican | Scott Parkinson | |||
Republican | Chuck Smith | |||
Total votes | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [41] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [42] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
Inside Elections [43] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [44] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
CNalysis [45] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Hung Cao (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Glenn Youngkin (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14-25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3% [lower-alpha 3] | 7% |
University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10% [lower-alpha 4] | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | TBD | ||||
Total votes | 100.00% |
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