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Elections in Michigan |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate, other elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024. [1]
Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham. Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote. She announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994, which was the only time since 1972 that Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race. [2] [3]
A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats have seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices. [4]
This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there is no incumbent; however, most analysts consider the race leaning towards the Democrats. [5] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] and defaulting on a bank loan. [14] [15] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines. [16]
In November 2023, actor and Democratic Senate candidate Hill Harper gained attention after Politico reported that he had declined an offer of $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson that would have been contingent upon him dropping out of the Senate race and mounting a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib. [44] [45] [46] Prior to the announcement, Harper had supported a "humanitarian ceasefire" and later reiterated his support for an extension to the 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire. [47] AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann replied to the matter stating that it "was absolutely not involved in any way in this matter. Also, our records indicate that [Nelson] has not contributed to AIPAC in over a decade." [48]
Later that same month, fellow Democratic Senate candidate Nasser Beydoun alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib, despite Beydoun's publicly pro-Palestinian stance. Johnson repeatedly denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane." [49]
Had either candidate accepted the alleged donation offer, Campaign Legal Center federal reform director Saurav Ghosh said any potential coordination between a candidate and a donor with such amounts of financing would be illegal, and "could thus qualify as an excessive contribution". [48] Meanwhile, Michigan Campaign Finance Network executive director Nick Pigeon said that such overtures, if true, would "appear to violate campaign finance restrictions on coordination between independent expenditures and a candidate committee", albeit rarely enforced. [47]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Nasser Beydoun (D) | $855,335 | $678,582 | $148,721 |
Hill Harper (D) | $2,037,766 [lower-alpha 1] | $1,596,454 | $441,312 |
Leslie Love (D) [lower-alpha 2] | $23,395 | $17,017 | $17,017 |
Pamela Pugh (D) [lower-alpha 2] | $90,638 | $81,363 | $9,275 |
Elissa Slotkin (D) | $16,094,088 | $7,473,267 | $8,620,820 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [84] |
Elissa Slotkin has led the field in fundraising with nearly $8.9 million for her Senate campaign as of October 2023. [85] [86] By mid-August 2023, she had raised nearly $6 million for her Senate campaign. [87] Slotkin received more than $35,000 from executives of the studios involved in the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike and the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, including more than $26,000 in contributions from Disney executives, $2,500 from a Sony Pictures film executive, and $2,250 from an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures. [87]
For the first quarter of 2024, Slotkin led fundraising on the Democratic side with contributions to her campaign of $4.3 million. Hill Harper reported contributions totaling $358,690. [88]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Nasser Beydoun | Hill Harper | Leslie Love | Elissa Slotkin | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 1] | March 15–16, 2024 | 260 (LV) | – | 3% | 11% | – | 59% | – | 27% |
Leslie Love withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Target Insyght [upper-alpha 2] | January 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 65% | 26% [lower-alpha 4] | |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | December 28–29, 2023 | 549 (LV) | – | 2% | 12% | 3% | 50% | – | 34% |
– | 14% | – | 56% | – | 31% | ||||
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 551 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 34% | 29% [lower-alpha 5] | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Hill Harper | |||
Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | |||
Total votes |
Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022. [109] He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan. [110]
Michigan Democrats and the DSCC asked state election officials to investigate the signatures of Sandy Pensler, Mike Rogers and Justin Amash for fraud. They did not provide any proof of fraud, other than the fact that it had occurred two years prior. If proven, this would be the second election cycle where Republicans would be disqualified for fraudulent signatures. [111]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
James Craig (R) [lower-alpha 2] | $60,581 | $32,581 | $27,999 |
Peter Meijer (R) [lower-alpha 2] | $508,162 [lower-alpha 7] | $118,666 | $389,495 |
Sherry O'Donnell (R) | $158,145 | $65,079 | $93,065 |
Sandy Pensler (R) | $1,051,311 [lower-alpha 8] | $45,558 | $1,005,752 |
Mike Rogers (R) | $1,864,443 | $918,889 | $945,554 |
Sharon Savage (R) [lower-alpha 9] | $100,039 [lower-alpha 10] | $18,521 | $81,517 |
Nikki Snyder (R) [lower-alpha 2] | $199,423 [lower-alpha 11] | $106,254 | $93,169 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [84] |
For the first quarter of 2024, Rogers reported the highest contributions on the Republican side of just over a million dollars. Meijer reported $234,734 in contributions, Amash reported $478,460 in contributions over the 5 weeks he had been in the race and Pensler reported $1,204 in contributions [122]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Justin Amash | James Craig | Peter Meijer | Sandy Pensler | Mike Rogers | Nikki Snyder | Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | April 30 – May 1, 2024 | 545 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 8% | – | – | 3% | 32% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 12] | 54% | |||||
Peter Meijer withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Nikki Snyder withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 1] | March 15–16, 2024 | 288 (LV) | – | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | 27% | – | – | 59% | |||||
Market Resource Group (R) | February 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | – | – | 7% | 2% | 23% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 13] | 62% | |||||
James Craig withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Target Insyght [upper-alpha 2] | January 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 33% | 11% | 2% | 20% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 14] | 33% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | October 9–10, 2023 | 430 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | 30% | – | – | 19% | – | – | 51% | |||||
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 9% | – | 12% | 6% | 44% [lower-alpha 15] | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Justin Amash | |||
Republican | Sherry O'Donnell | |||
Republican | Sandy Pensler | |||
Republican | Mike Rogers | |||
Total votes |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [126] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [127] | Tilt D | February 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [128] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [129] | Lean D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [130] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Justin Amash (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 5] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 35% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Sandy Pensler (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 26% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 5] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 37% | 23% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 5] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 40% | 19% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 5] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 1] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | – | 37% | 37% | 26% |
EPIC-MRA | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 6] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | 25% |
EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
EPIC-MRA | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 38% | 18% |
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 1] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Hill Harper (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 26% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Nasser Beydoun (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | James Craig (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 6] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 27% |
EPIC-MRA | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
EPIC-MRA | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Peter Meijer (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 5] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 6] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 36% | 28% |
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 1] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Nikki Snyder (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | John Tuttle (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
Deborah Ann Stabenow is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from Michigan, a seat she has held since 2001. A member of the Democratic Party, she became the state's first female U.S. senator after winning the 2000 election.
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Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Mayor Mike Duggan of Detroit would not run for the Senate, aides said.
Former Representative Andy Levin, who lost his House seat to fellow Democrat Haley Stevens in a primary after it was redrawn, also has no plans to run for Senate, according to his spokeswoman...a spokesperson for Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) also confirmed he wouldn't be running for Senate in 2024.
Pugh added state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), Rep. Hillary Scholten (MI-3) and Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) as possible successors to Stabenow.
Scholten is seeking another term in the U.S. House.
Meanwhile, newly-elected Rep. Shri Thanedar says he has "no plans" to seek a promotion
Harper, though, got some welcome news Monday when he received an endorsement from Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, who leads the most populous county in the state.
Tudor Dixon, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2022, also indicated she wouldn't seek Stabenow's seat.
Former Rep. CANDICE MILLER (R-Mich.) will not run for the seat being vacated by Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.), per The Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke.