2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

Last updated

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  2019 November 7, 2023 2027  
Turnout38% (Decrease2.svg4%)
  Governor Beshear 2023 (cropped).jpg Attorney General Daniel Cameron Official KY AG Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Robby Mills
Popular vote694,482627,457
Percentage52.53%47.46%

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by state senate district.svg
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by state house district.svg
Beshear:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%     >90%
Cameron:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Had Cameron won, he would have become Kentucky's first African-American governor.

Contents

This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. The other was held in Louisiana, which Jeff Landry flipped for the Republicans.

This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party candidates had previously held the position of Attorney General; Beshear held the position from 2016 to 2019, after which he was succeeded by Cameron.

Beshear's victory has been attributed to his broad popularity among Democrats and independents, as well as approximately half of Republicans in the state. [1] Compared to 2019, Beshear most improved his performance in suburban precincts; he increased his margins by nearly 6 percentage points in suburban areas, compared to 4.5 percentage points in urban and rural precincts. [2]

Background

A socially conservative southern state, Kentucky is considered safely Republican in federal elections, with Republicans holding both of its U.S. Senate seats and all but one of its U.S. House seats. In the 2020 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 26 percentage points. However, the state was much more competitive as recently as the 1990s, when it voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Democrats remain competitive in many local and some state-level elections.

Beshear was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, who had become widely unpopular for signing a pension reform bill for teachers and opposing a subsequent teachers' strike. In that same year, Cameron was elected Attorney General, becoming the first African-American to be elected to that position.

Cameron gained national recognition as Attorney General, especially due to his involvement in the Breonna Taylor case in 2020. He spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention on August 25, 2020. [3] In September 2020, Cameron appeared on a shortlist of potential nominees to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court by President Trump. [4]

On May 16, 2023, Cameron won the Republican nomination with 47.7% of the vote, a 26% margin over the second-place candidate, and Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 91.3% of the vote over two perennial candidates. [5] [6]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Andy Beshear

Fundraising

Beshear is the only candidate who has filed a financial disclosure.

Campaign finance reports as of January 3, 2023 [15]
CandidateRaisedCash on hand
Andy Beshear$647,000$7,400,000

Results

Results by county:
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Beshear
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election Democratic primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Beshear
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Andy Beshear (incumbent) 176,589 91.3
Democratic Geoff Young 9,8655.1
Democratic Peppy Martin 6,9133.6
Total votes193,367 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

  • Anthony Moore, wellwater drilling contractor [10]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Daniel Cameron
Executive Branch officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Kelly Craft
Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Mike Harmon
Organizations
Savannah Maddox (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Ryan Quarles
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Financial disclosures for major candidates are below:

Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2023 [45]
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Daniel Cameron$1,370,904$777,446$593,458
Kelly Craft$8,563,233 [lower-alpha 3] $8,156,315$406,918
Eric Deters$669,064 [lower-alpha 4] $659,746$9,319
Mike Harmon$84,547 [lower-alpha 5] $70,693$13,854
Alan Keck$311,717 [lower-alpha 6] $257,577$54,139
Ryan Quarles$1,202,650$299,419$903,231

Debates

2023 Republican primary debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Daniel CameronKelly CraftEric DetersMike HarmonAlan KeckRyan Quarles
1March 7, 2023 Jefferson County Republican Party
Spectrum News 1 Kentucky
Mario Anderson Spectrum News 1 PANPPP
2April 26, 2023 Kenton County Republican Party
WCPO
LINK nky
Evan Millward
Shane Noem
Mark Payne
YouTube AAPPPP
3May 1, 2023 Kentucky Educational Television Renee Shaw YouTube PPPNPP
4May 8, 2023 WKYT
Transylvania University
Bill Bryant WSAZ AAPPNP
5May 9, 2023 WDKY Marvin Bartlett
Gilbert Corsey
Ashley Kirklen
WDKY PAPNNP

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Daniel
Cameron
David
Cooper
Kelly
Craft
Eric
Deters
Bob
DeVore
Mike
Harmon
Alan
Keck
Savannah
Maddox
Ryan
Quarles
Robbie
Smith
OtherUndecided
Emerson College May 10–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.3%33%2%18%10%<1%4%3%13%<1%<1% [lower-alpha 8] 13%
Emerson College April 10–11, 2023900 (LV)± 3.2%30%<1%24%6%<1%2%<1%15%<1%<1% [lower-alpha 9] 21%
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023404 (LV)± 5%39%1%13%2%1%5%2%8%1%28%
Meeting Street [upper-alpha 1] January 9–11, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%39%8%2%2%1%8%2%38%
December 20, 2022Maddox withdraws from the race
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 1] June 13–14, 2022974 (LV)± 3.5%46%3%4%5%7%9%3%22%

Results

Results by county:
Cameron
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Quarles
30-40%
40-50%
Craft
30-40%
40-50%
50-60% 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election Republican primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Cameron
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Quarles
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Craft
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Daniel Cameron 144,576 47.7
Republican Ryan Quarles 65,71821.7
Republican Kelly Craft 52,17017.2
Republican Eric Deters17,4645.8
Republican Mike Harmon 7,7972.6
Republican Alan Keck7,3172.4
Republican David Cooper2,2820.8
Republican Jacob Clark1,9000.6
Republican Robbie Smith1,3880.5
Republican Bob DeVore9310.3
Republican Johnny Rice7260.2
Republican Dennis Ormerod6960.2
Total votes302,965 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] Lean DJuly 21, 2023
Inside Elections [47] Tilt DSeptember 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] Lean DOctober 16, 2023
Elections Daily [49] Lean DNovember 7, 2023

Debates

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial debates [50]
No.DateHostLink Democratic Republican
 P Participant   A Absent   I Invitee
Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
1October 16, 2023 Northern Kentucky University YouTube PP
2October 21, 2023 League of Women Voters YouTube PP
3October 23, 2023 Kentucky Educational Television YouTube PP
4October 24, 2023 WKYT WKYT PP

Endorsements

Andy Beshear (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Organizations
Political parties
Daniel Cameron (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Andy
Beshear (D)
Daniel
Cameron (R)
OtherUndecided
Concord Public Opinion Partners [upper-alpha 2] November 1–2, 2023470 (LV)± 4.5%48%40%12%
Data for Progress (D) November 1–2, 2023660 (LV)± 4.0%50%48%2%
Emerson College October 30 – November 2, 20231,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%2% [lower-alpha 10] 4%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 3] October 18–19, 20231,845 (LV)± 3.2%47%45%8%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D) [upper-alpha 4] October 14–16, 2023721 (LV)± 3.6%52%44%4%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023450 (RV)± 4.6%49%33%5% [lower-alpha 11] 13%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 5] September 25–28, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%48%42%10%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 6] September 5–8, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%47%40%12%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D) [upper-alpha 4] August 30 – September 1, 2023716 (LV)± 3.6%51%42%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 4] August 9–10, 2023737 (V)?49%41%10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 7] July 19–20, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%49%45%5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 8] June 22–29, 2023800 (RV)± 3.95%52%42%
Cygnal (R) May 22–23, 2023600 (LV)± 3.9%47%47%6%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 18–19, 2023987 (LV)± 3.1%45%43%12%
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%49%40%11%
Hypothetical polling
Andy Beshear vs. Kelly Craft
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Andy
Beshear (D)
Kelly
Craft (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%57%32%11%
Andy Beshear vs. Mike Harmon
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Andy
Beshear (D)
Mike
Harmon (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%53%33%14%
Andy Beshear vs. Ryan Quarles
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Andy
Beshear (D)
Ryan
Quarles (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%52%35%13%

Results

Beshear won re-election by a fairly comfortable five-point margin. [87] Key to his victory was his performance in the state's two most populous counties, Jefferson and Fayette (home to the cities of Louisville and Lexington, respectively), each of which he carried with more than 70% of the vote. Beshear also over-performed in several Republican-leaning suburban counties in Northern Kentucky and the Bluegrass region, and in several historically Democratic rural counties in the Eastern Coalfield which have swung sharply towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. [88] Beshear's gains in the Eastern Coalfield were attributed to his response to flooding in the region in 2022. [89] [90]

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election [91]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
694,482 52.53% +3.34
Republican 627,45747.46%-1.37
Write-in 830.01%N/A
Total votes1,322,022 100.00%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Despite winning the election, Beshear won only two of the state's six congressional districts, including one represented by a Republican.[ citation needed ]

DistrictBeshearCameronRepresentative
1st 44%56% James Comer
2nd 46%54% Brett Guthrie
3rd 71%29% Morgan McGarvey
4th 48%52% Thomas Massie
5th 42%58% Hal Rogers
6th 59%41% Andy Barr

County results

Results by county

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election shift map by county.svg
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
CountyAndy BeshearDaniel CameronWrite-inMarginTotal
votes
 %# %# %#%#
Adair 31.94%1,68868.06%3,5970.00%0-36.12%-1,9095,285
Allen 29.60%1,51370.40%3,5990.00%0-40.81%-2,0865,112
Anderson 45.34%4,21254.66%5,0780.00%0-9.32%-8669,290
Ballard 36.28%96363.72%1,6910.00%0-27.43%-7282,654
Barren 41.78%4,96558.21%6,9180.01%1-16.43%-1,95311,884
Bath 55.81%1,91344.19%1,5150.00%011.61%3983,428
Bell 40.24%2,28159.74%3,3860.02%1-19.50%-1,1055,668
Boone 43.96%17,57556.03%22,3990.01%4-12.07%-4,82439,978
Bourbon 53.96%3,26546.04%2,7860.00%07.92%4796,051
Boyd 51.52%6,06848.48%5,7100.00%03.04%35811,778
Boyle 52.89%5,04047.11%4,4890.00%05.78%5519,529
Bracken 39.86%93960.14%1,4170.00%0-20.29%-4782,356
Breathitt 61.17%1,76338.83%1,1190.00%022.35%6442,882
Breckinridge 41.96%2,60858.04%3,6070.00%0-16.07%-9996,215
Bullitt 42.96%10,72357.04%14,2350.00%0-14.07%-3,51224,958
Butler 32.15%1,17367.85%2,4750.00%0-35.69%-1,3023,648
Caldwell 39.99%1,51960.01%2,2790.00%0-20.01%-7603,798
Calloway 46.26%5,21153.74%6,0540.00%0-7.48%-84311,265
Campbell 54.19%16,88545.80%14,2710.01%48.39%2,61431,160
Carlisle 30.33%54569.67%1,2520.00%0-39.34%-7071,797
Carroll 47.95%1,11252.05%1,2070.00%0-4.10%-952,319
Carter 47.27%2,97852.71%3,3210.02%1-5.44%-3436,300
Casey 26.08%1,12973.92%3,2000.00%0-47.84%-2,0714,329
Christian 42.68%5,13557.30%6,8930.02%2-14.61%-1,75812,030
Clark 51.63%5,93848.35%5,5610.03%33.28%37711,502
Clay 35.63%1,44164.37%2,6030.00%0-28.73%-1,1624,044
Clinton 24.33%60775.67%1,8880.00%0-51.34%-1,2812,495
Crittenden 34.07%85865.93%1,6600.00%0-31.85%-8022,518
Cumberland 26.43%50373.57%1,4000.00%0-47.14%-8971,903
Daviess 51.11%15,57248.89%14,8950.01%22.22%67730,469
Edmonson 37.38%1,35862.54%2,2720.08%3-25.16%-9143,633
Elliott 53.48%87546.52%7610.00%06.97%1141,636
Estill 42.17%1,50957.83%2,0690.00%0-15.65%-5603,578
Fayette 71.75%74,29828.24%29,2390.01%843.52%45,059103,545
Fleming 42.13%1,86557.87%2,5620.00%0-15.74%-6974,427
Floyd 57.14%5,13642.85%3,8520.01%114.28%1,2848,989
Franklin 68.52%13,50031.48%6,2010.00%037.05%7,29919,701
Fulton 44.89%61555.11%7550.00%0-10.22%-1401,370
Gallatin 40.71%86559.29%1,2600.00%0-18.59%-3952,125
Garrard 37.69%2,14162.31%3,5390.00%0-24.61%-1,3985,680
Grant 35.16%2,22064.82%4,0930.02%1-29.66%-1,8736,314
Graves 36.49%3,88563.51%6,7630.00%0-27.03%-2,87810,648
Grayson 36.07%2,51463.91%4,4540.01%1-27.84%-1,9406,969
Green 29.63%1,08270.35%2,5690.03%1-40.72%-1,4873,652
Greenup 45.74%4,49854.26%5,3360.00%0-8.52%-8389,834
Hancock 49.41%1,46450.59%1,4990.00%0-1.18%-352,963
Hardin 49.70%14,33650.30%14,5110.00%0-0.61%-17528,847
Harlan 33.96%1,90466.04%3,7020.00%0-32.07%-1,7985,606
Harrison 49.09%2,77550.91%2,8780.00%0-1.82%-1035,653
Hart 38.62%1,92061.38%3,0510.00%0-22.75%-1,1314,971
Henderson 55.77%7,04844.22%5,5890.01%111.54%1,45912,638
Henry 44.97%2,32555.01%2,8440.02%1-10.04%-5195,170
Hickman 33.03%47066.97%9530.00%0-33.94%-4831,423
Hopkins 45.50%5,76254.50%6,9010.00%0-8.99%-1,13912,663
Jackson 22.91%74377.06%2,4990.03%1-54.15%-1,7563,243
Jefferson 70.04%179,85429.95%76,9080.00%1140.09%102,946256,773
Jessamine 46.79%8,00753.20%9,1040.01%1-6.41%-1,09717,112
Johnson 37.08%1,89862.92%3,2200.00%0-25.83%-1,3225,118
Kenton 52.80%26,06647.20%23,3010.01%45.60%2,76549,371
Knott 54.45%1,84745.55%1,5450.00%08.90%3023,392
Knox 34.54%2,28665.46%4,3330.00%0-30.93%-2,0476,619
Larue 38.57%1,75661.41%2,7960.02%1-22.84%-1,0404,553
Laurel 31.41%4,97468.59%10,8620.01%1-37.18%-5,88815,837
Lawrence 37.31%1,36162.69%2,2870.00%0-25.38%-9263,648
Lee 46.32%70553.68%8170.00%0-7.36%-1121,522
Leslie 30.36%66769.64%1,5300.00%0-39.28%-8632,197
Letcher 52.33%2,20547.67%2,0090.00%04.65%1964,214
Lewis 31.64%91168.36%1,9680.00%0-36.71%-1,0572,879
Lincoln 37.82%2,58662.18%4,2520.00%0-24.36%-1,6666,838
Livingston 36.62%1,06163.38%1,8360.00%0-26.75%-7752,897
Logan 37.35%2,44962.60%4,1050.05%3-25.26%-1,6566,557
Lyon 42.99%1,22157.01%1,6190.00%0-14.01%-3982,840
Madison 51.72%14,01248.28%13,0800.00%13.44%93227,093
Magoffin 50.38%1,57749.62%1,5530.00%00.77%243,130
Marion 52.14%2,89147.84%2,6530.02%14.29%2385,545
Marshall 39.94%4,61060.05%6,9320.01%1-20.12%-2,32211,543
Martin 29.81%51370.19%1,2080.00%0-40.38%-6951,721
Mason 46.68%2,24753.30%2,5660.02%1-6.63%-3194,814
McCracken 47.06%9,86752.94%11,0990.00%0-5.88%-1,23220,966
McCreary 28.21%85371.76%2,1700.03%1-43.55%-1,3173,024
McLean 41.59%1,23858.41%1,7390.00%0-16.83%-5012,977
Meade 43.13%3,59956.83%4,7420.04%3-13.70%-1,1438,344
Menifee 45.88%86254.07%1,0160.05%1-8.20%-1541,879
Mercer 44.26%3,39955.72%4,2790.01%1-11.46%-8807,679
Metcalfe 40.99%1,24259.01%1,7880.00%0-18.02%-5463,030
Monroe 25.27%1,02374.73%3,0250.00%0-49.46%-2,0024,048
Montgomery 49.31%3,96250.69%4,0730.00%0-1.38%-1118,035
Morgan 47.18%1,63052.79%1,8240.03%1-5.62%-1943,455
Muhlenberg 46.45%3,83353.55%4,4190.00%0-7.10%-5868,252
Nelson 50.63%7,56249.37%7,3750.00%01.25%18714,937
Nicholas 56.01%1,14243.99%8970.00%012.02%2452,039
Ohio 39.24%2,47960.76%3,8390.00%0-21.53%-1,3606,318
Oldham 49.57%12,95250.43%13,1770.00%1-0.86%-22526,130
Owen 40.55%1,49459.45%2,1900.00%0-18.89%-6963,684
Owsley 40.84%38159.16%5520.00%0-18.33%-171933
Pendleton 38.20%1,51161.80%2,4440.00%0-23.59%-9333,955
Perry 55.79%3,12144.21%2,4730.00%011.58%6485,594
Pike 45.46%5,79754.54%6,9540.00%0-9.07%-1,15712,751
Powell 50.02%1,51849.98%1,5170.00%00.03%13,035
Pulaski 32.15%6,13967.85%12,9570.01%1-35.70%-6,81819,097
Robertson 44.17%30755.83%3880.00%0-11.65%-81695
Rockcastle 29.11%1,24470.89%3,0290.00%0-41.77%-1,7854,273
Rowan 60.75%3,90739.25%2,5240.00%021.51%1,3836,431
Russell 30.03%1,60469.97%3,7370.00%0-39.94%-2,1335,341
Scott 54.58%10,57545.42%8,8010.01%19.16%1,77419,377
Shelby 47.58%7,94652.40%8,7510.02%4-4.82%-80516,701
Simpson 41.21%1,90558.79%2,7180.00%0-17.59%-8134,623
Spencer 37.04%2,75262.96%4,6770.00%0-25.91%-1,9257,429
Taylor 40.80%3,19859.20%4,6410.00%0-18.41%-1,4437,839
Todd 34.07%90765.85%1,7530.08%2-31.78%-8462,662
Trigg 37.16%1,53262.84%2,5910.00%0-25.69%-1,0594,123
Trimble 44.09%1,10855.91%1,4050.00%0-11.82%-2972,513
Union 44.97%1,72255.03%2,1070.00%0-10.05%-3853,829
Warren 52.12%18,16547.87%16,6850.01%54.25%1,48034,855
Washington 43.02%1,77256.96%2,3460.02%1-13.94%-5744,119
Wayne 37.81%1,75462.19%2,8850.00%0-24.38%-1,1314,639
Webster 41.32%1,42558.68%2,0240.00%0-17.37%-5993,449
Whitley 32.74%2,69767.26%5,5400.00%0-34.51%-2,8438,237
Wolfe 57.26%1,01042.74%7540.00%014.51%2561,764
Woodford 59.25%6,41440.75%4,4110.00%018.50%2,00310,825

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. Green nominee for Kentucky's 45th House district in 2012; Democratic candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014, 2016, and 2018, Republican candidate in 2020, and Democratic nominee in 2022; Democratic candidate for governor in 2015 and 2019
  2. Candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2008, 2012, and 2016; candidate for Kentucky's 46th House district in 2010 and nominee in 2020; Republican nominee for Mayor of Louisville in 2014 and candidate in 2018
  3. $7,001,000 of this total was self-funded by Craft
  4. $52,500 of this total was self-funded by Deters
  5. $10,772 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  6. $32,000 of this total was self-funded by Keck
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. Ormerod with 0.5%
  9. Jacob Clark with 0.5%
  10. "Someone Else" with 2%
  11. "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Cameron's campaign
  2. Poll commissioned by Education Reform Now Advocacy
  3. Poll commissioned by the Bluegrass Freedom Action PAC
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Beshear's campaign
  5. Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC
  6. Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC
  7. Poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee
  8. Poll commissioned by the Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence

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